In 24 months – by 2021 – Brexit may (or may not) be behind us. Trump may (or may not) be President of the US. Whatever happens in the short-term, in 24 months the world may look very different. Relationships will have transformed, technology will have advanced and with it, markets will have changed.

With technology invading every aspect of our lives, it's not hard to understand its pervasiveness in our investments. In the not too distant past the general public understood successful brands as those companies that were big and expensive – the stalwarts of industry. Today, many of the best known brands are companies that didn't even exist 25 years ago (Amazon is 24-years-old, Google is just 20 and Facebook launched in 2004).

Managers at a number of BNY Mellon's investment boutiques will look forward to the disruptors of tomorrow. What in their investment world will be faster, smaller and cheaper by 2021? And what are the likely market and investment implications?

BNY Mellon Investment Management invites you to join us for a discussion on what 2021 looks like – from the influence of tech to ongoing political disruptions.

According to a recent survey of analysts across BNY Mellon IM:

  • The majority expect workforces to be smaller over the next 24 months
  • Technology is considered a greater influence on company performance than politics, monetary policy and regulations
  • Not everyone thinks AI will revolutionise businesses
  • Volatility is rising
  • ESG interests are omnipresent
  • Technology is not just changing companies – it is changing the market itself – from correlations to defining characteristics. Are defensive sectors becoming growth? And what does this mean for asset allocation decisions?

Agenda

08:45
Registration and light buffet breakfast
09:15
Welcome Address
Economic Update
CIO Panel
Katya Adler, BBC Europe Editor
11:30
Coffee break
11:45
Boardroom Session 1
12:30
Boardroom Session 2
13:15
Buffet lunch and networking
14:15
Boardroom Session 3
15:00
Kenneth Cukier, Data Editor of The Economist
16:00
Drinks and networking
18:00
Close

Boardrooms

Topic Speaker/Fund Boutique
1 The shopping evolution
As online shopping further reduces retail presences on the high street, the headlines warn of a 'retail apocalypse'. However, while some malls have faced difficulties, many retail properties have continued to perform successfully. Retail is not dead, rather it is being reborn with new models to address changing demographic and technological trends. Abbe Franchot Borok at Amherst outlines the proprietary research it undertakes to understand the fault lines between success and failure within US commercial real estate.
Abbe Franchot Borok
Commercial Real Estate
2 Pitfalls in 2021
The next two years will see a continuation in the rise of populism, economic policy normalisation, technological disruption and subsequently, volatility. While the fast-paced cadence of new themes, trends and products can be exciting, avoiding the most troubled sectors (and the problem credits within them) is key. Graham Rainbow and Cathy Bevan, managers on Alcentra's Floating Rate Credit strategy, highlight some potential casualties of these developments and map a course through credit market volatility.
Graham Rainbow and Cathy Bevan
Floating Rate Credit
3 Swimming against the tide
A shrinking, smaller high yield universe is likely to offset the renewed volatility, unsustainable business models and disruptive markets investors will increasingly face. The divergence/convergence between US and Europe is also significant over the next two years, so how will political dynamics play in high yield? Insight's short-dated high yield manager, Uli Gerhard, will discuss the importance of stock picking against a backdrop of wider issuer performance dispersion and uncertain market forces.
Uli Gerhard
Global Short-Dated High Yield
4 Gathering storm
Imagine the world in 2021: the high yield market is smaller, the investment grade market is bigger (as is the percentage of this universe that is BBB-rated) and the global economy is growing more slowly. Against this backdrop, markets and sectors will have changed in composition and may also have taken on more risk. Insight's head of fixed income investment specialists, April LaRusse discusses how investors need more tools at their disposal to face the challenges of the not-too-distant future.
April LaRusse
Absolute Insight Credit
5 The greying of the world
While the population of the world is getting older and slowing down, technology aimed at improving the quality of life is getting faster, cheaper and smaller. It is also more readily deployed both at home and within new types of care facilities. Global infrastructure manager at Mellon, Jim Lydotes, looks at the convergence of 5G and rising baby boomer needs and how infrastructure assets can benefit from both trends.
Jim Lydotes
Global Infrastructure
6 Hype v reality
In the world of 2021 mass market EVs may be a reality and ubiquitous but will battery research be any closer the ultimate and essential goal of solid state? And in the drive for such goals what other new developments will the world's R&D departments have discovered? Just as Amazon now pervades almost all market sectors, the interconnectivity of sectors and themes is becoming universal. Investment strategist George Saffaye outlines Mellon's approach to themes, such as mobility, and how they are set to dominate markets and our lives.
George Saffaye
Thematic Investing
7 The quantum of investing
Over the next two years the rapidity of change will see the focus on leverage intensify, as trading gets sharper and artificial intelligence becomes more embedded into investment decision-making. As a consequence, the imperative to understand the underlying narratives informing market behaviour becomes ever more pressing. Claire Corry of the US high yield beta team at Mellon asks: can smart beta or dynamic allocation strategies provide a low-cost solution to a faster, more complex world?
Claire Corry
Custom Beta - High Yield Bond & Dynamic US Equity
8 Chain of events
Rising populism, heightened geopolitical risk and growing environmental concerns will be key fixed income influencers in the next two years. Greater political disruption will lead to increased budget deficits and greater government issuance. Meanwhile with sustainability higher on investors' agenda, faster implementation of ESG principles will create a greater dispersion between the strong and the weak. Paul Brain and Scott Freedman, managers of Newton's Global Dynamic Bond and Sustainable Global Dynamic Bond strategies, discuss the future state of government bond allocations and what sustainability, and the subsequent cost of capital on companies, means for fixed income investors.
Paul Brain and Scott Freedman
Global Dynamic Bond
9 Standing close to 'the edge'
Faster connections are needed as the world moves from the 'cloud' to the 'edge' – where technologies need speed to connect to each other directly. Global income manager Nick Clay outlines how an income mandate can play a technology theme - how today's mature tech is increasingly dealing with the demands of a faster, smarter future.
Nick Clay
Global Income & Sustainability
10 Here comes the sun
The speed of change in the renewable energy sector is picking up and by 2021 for some countries, scale may be such that government subsidies are withdrawn. As solar becomes viable without government support, will the current stability in returns be affected? What knock-on opportunities could arise in energy storage? Newton multi-asset income manager Paul Flood explores how this can affect both alternative and equity holdings.
Paul Flood
Global Multi-Asset
11 Honey, I shrunk the...
The world of technology and healthcare is all about items getting smaller – devices – while R&D and production gets faster but is anything getting cheaper? In two sectors that depend on pinpoint accuracy the question is also – are things getting too small, too fast? Newton analysts Fati Naraghi and Stephen Rowntree discuss the rapid developments in their worlds and what it means for investment opportunities.
Fati Naraghi and Stephen Rowntree
Analyst in the Afternoon
12 Long Term Global Equity / Global Leaders
Technological innovation is radically transforming R&D across multiple industry sectors. Digitisation is a game-changer at the beauty counter while AI plays a fundamental role in healthcare research and over the next two years, will become ever more embedded. Walter Scott's investment manager Lindsay Scott explores how long-term investors focused on quality can find opportunity in a fast-moving world.
Lindsay Scott
Long Term Global Equity / Global Leaders

Speakers

Katya Adler
BBC Europe Editor

Reporting in the most turbulent times on this continent since the Second World War, BBC Europe Editor Katya Adler has become one of the most well-known broadcast journalists. She is the BBC's leading voice on Brexit and the EU; her extensive interviews with political leaders across the continent have given her unique insider knowledge on European attitudes and intentions regarding a Brexit deal. Katya is also an expert on populism across Europe, the future of the EU, Europe's relations with Trump and Putin and much more. Katya has broadcast her own documentary for the BBC entitled After Brexit: The Battle for Europe, as well as a more recent Panorama special Brexit What Happens Next?. She also writes the Europe Editor blog on the BBC news website.

Katya joined the BBC in 1998, covering European affairs across the continent for BBC World Service, whilst also commuting to Berlin to appear regularly as a news anchor on Deutsche Welle Television. In 2003, Katya became the BBC's Madrid correspondent during which time she covered the Madrid train bombings in 2004. In 2006, she became the BBC's Middle East correspondent based out of Jerusalem, specialising in war reporting across the region.

Kenneth Cukier
Data Editor of The Economist

Kenneth Cukier is Senior Editor, Digital Products and Data Analytics at The Economist where he oversees data analytics and manages their new digital product development. Prior to this he was Data Editor following a decade at the paper covering business and technology. Kenn is host of The Economist's weekly tech podcast, Babbage. From 2002-2004 Kenn was a research fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, working on the Internet and international relations. From 2007-2012 he was the Japan business and finance correspondent, and before that, The Economist's global technology correspondent based in London, where his work focused on innovation, intellectual property and Internet governance.

Kenn is the co-author of Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think. It is the first systematic treatment of this emerging science, which Kenn argues is a revolution on par with the Internet or perhaps even the printing press. It was a NYT Bestseller, translated in over 20 languages and sold over 1 million copies worldwide. Kenn then co-authored a follow-on book entitled Learning with Big Data: The Future of Education.

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Accommodation

Accommodation is available on the night of 13 March for those travelling from outside London. Please tick here if you require a complimentary room.


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The Venue

Rosewood Hotel, London, WC1V 7EN





Mellon was formed on 31 January 2018, through the merger of The Boston Company and Standish into Mellon Capital. Effective 2 January 2019, the combined firm was renamed Mellon Investments Corporation.